10 April 2010

Will it be The Sun wot won it again?

Does Fleet Street influence the election? A look at the charts below illustrates the fact that newspaper support does correlate closely with the subsequent result.

The significance of The Sun is illustrated in the table below which reveals that the paper's readers are the only one's to back the winner in the last four elections (something both Blair and Campbell were fully aware of).

I expect we'll see Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph reader support for the Tories return to 1992 levels this time again - whilst I wouldn't be surprised to see the majority of Daily Star readers defecting in their droves to the Tories for the first time.

Whether the press is leading or merely following the tide of public opinion is a matter of debate, but the decision by The Sun to switch their support to the Conservatives would mean a Labour victory would have to dramatically buck a 65-year trend.

Data courtesy of the Guardian Data Store

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